11) What would have happend if Hwayoung had not been added?

There are two different scenarios to consider. In the first the only change we make is that Hwayoung is not added. Areum joins in July 2012, the Hwayoung crisis does not occur, and Dani is added a few months after that. Kim Kwang Soo selected Dani for T-ara when he saw her in the street. She is only 13 years old and joining a top group where the next youngest is 18 and the oldest is 26, and who have just released a song called Sexy Love. I am worried already! There's no way this is going to work out well. T-ara's schedule is tough for the hardened professionals who have been in the group for three years, and Dani is a child with no discernible talent who is completely out of her depth and won't be able to cope. It's going to end in disaster, probably before Christmas, and I mean Christmas in 2012. 

All of that is without even considering what we know about Areum, who said that Hwayoung was a friend who took good care of her and that she was hurt by the staff. That suggests Hwayoung's bad relationship with the staff may have been more their fault than hers. It seems that they didn't like new members, and Areum lasted a little under a year in T-ara before she jumped ship (or was pushed overboard, it is not clear which). If it was her choice the stress of being in a group accused of bullying was surely part of the reason, but the loss of her friend Hwayoung and the staff problem were likely to be part of it too, probably more than the Hyoyoung incident. 

The second alternative history is one in which no additions are made to the group. T-ara's most successful period was when Hwayoung was a member and she did help to attract new fans, but it is reasonable to think that Roly Poly and Lovey Dovey would still have been very big hits without her. The Budokan concerts would have passed without incident but T-ara's excessive workload would have caused problems eventually. Early in 2012 the members complained that they had not had a day off in over a year. To achieve long-term success the management needed to keep them happy and excited about they were doing and encourage them to work together for the good of the group, but KKS responded by threatening to replace members if he thought they weren't meeting his expectations. That is a terrible way to manage them that was likely to make them feel that they were in competition with each other and increase stress and tension, and it was probably one of the reasons for the conflict that led to the scandal. 

Without Hwayoung the crisis would not have come when it did, but it was the scandal that slowed down their schedule and without it they would have kept working far too hard. Something probably would have gone badly wrong eventually; whether that would be their mental health, conflict within the group just a general loss of interest resulting in tired and lacklustre performances I don't know. The last of those is something they were criticised for even before KKS said he would replace members who fell below the standards he demanded.  

T-ara were so badly managed that they probably would have run into serious trouble soon, with or without added members. From the position they were actually in, if Hwayoung's injury had not happened when it did they might have had a scandal about bullying Areum or Dani instead. They did have a mini-scandal when Areum left, which was as fake as the one involving Hwayoung. Because it was what people expected of T-ara it didn't become a big thing and didn't affect their popularity, so there was no attempt to demonise Areum, but what would have happened if the Areum scandal had been the first? It would have been just like the Hwayoung one, with T-ara hated for being bullies and Areum denounced as a victim-playing snake by the "loyal" fans.

10) Is Kim Kwang Soo the anonymous former staff member? (AFSM)

Reasons for being suspicious about AFSM's motive and honesty

Anonymity

We don't know who is telling the story and that does not inspire trust. There are a number of possible reasons for it, some more honourable than others. A real staff member might be afraid of the reaction from Hwayoung fans; it could be to enable AFSM to tell a lie without Hwayoung knowing that it wasn't just a mistake because she didn't know what the person actually witnessed; or it could be because AFSM was not really so innocent and wanted to prevent Hwayoung presenting her own counter-allegations. 

For me though, the most compelling is that AFSM is Kim Kwang Soo. He had held the story back as a deterrent to stop Hwayoung talking too much, and to avoid damaging another of the company's groups, F-ve Dolls (disbanded November 2014), whose members included Hyoyoung. If it became known that MBK and KKS were behind the leak they would be dependent on Hwayoung not wanting to create trouble for T-ara. She would have to choose between taking the hate and talking about what happened over the days leading up to the threat. It's unlikely that she would be concerned about damaging MBK's reputation in those circumstances.

Accusation of playing the victim.

Why would Hwayoung want to do that? She was doing well in her acting career and had a new drama series, My Father is Strange, starting a few weeks after Taxi. Bringing up the subject of problems in T-ara couldn't do her any good but could be damaging, as we saw, especially if the Hyoyoung story came out.

All Hwayoung said about T-ara was what Eunjung had said on The Beatle2 Code in 2013. There was no suggestion of bullying or any mistreatment and no implication that anyone else was more to blame for what happened than she was. All the talk of crying and losing weight was about the time after she left the group, not before. Anyone who was a staff member at the time will understand that and know that she didn't weigh just 40kg when she was a T-ara member.

Suggestion that when Hwayoung said "things can happen" she was talking about Hyoyoung's threat.

That was one of the things that happened but it came after three days of conflict between Hwayoung and the other members, which was what she meant. The threat was bad but there was no actual violence and it doesn't mean the twins are the most evil people in Korea as I have seen some T-ara fans suggest. Far worse things happen every day, it was probably more an expression of drunken anger than a real intention to scratch Areums face, and Hwayoung had nothing to do with it, but it was a shock for sweet, sensitive Areum and she has my sympathy.

Use of Areum as a weapon without her consent

Hyoyoung had apologised years earlier and Areum has said that she was very upset by the criticism the twins received because of this story. As that was an obvious consequence of revealing it I think it is very unlikely that she would have agreed to it.

The picture of Areum used to accompany the article

Why use a picture that had brought Areum so much unwanted attention, with suggestions that she was possessed? Probably to make people associate that with the threat from Hyoyoung and increase anger among the fans. 

Reasons for suspecting KKS

The messages

Why did AFSM have a copy of Hyoyoung's messages? It isn't normal for an employee to take information like that when leaving a company but it is understandable for MBK to have it.

Timing

Why then and not years before? T-ara's fans often say that Hwayoung continually played the victim for years (but can never give me an example) so there should have been plenty of opportunities to use that excuse for leaking the story, but it's possible that AFSM had only recently left the company.

T-ara were MBK's biggest source of income and the members' contracts were all due to expire that year, Soyeon's and Boram's in just a few months. Restoring T-ara's reputation and boosting their popularity would have been seen as a way to encourage them to stay with the company. There was some risk involved, but it was probably seen as a risk worth taking given the potential reward, and Hwayoung had already shown that she didn't want to do any harm to T-ara.

Preparation

TVN's trailer encouraged a hostile mood among fans, but we all know it doesn't take much to do that. 

AKP staff reported "She'll be fully opening up about her leave from T-ara on next week's episode of 'Taxi'."

Hwayoung talks about her dream to be actress on 'Taxi' | allkpop

An AKP user wrote "Hwayoung will also open up about the past controversy with T-ara."

[AKP]Hwayoung to open up about the past controversy with T-ara on 'Taxi'

Neither of those is really true, but the latter is far more misleading. Hwayoung was not asked about the controversy and only said the same as Eunjung had said previously.

The episode was shown on 8^th February 2017, but the fans were already discussing it on 1^st February, making comments like these. Bear in mind that at this time there was no information about what she said; these people are just assuming it's something bad, even though it never was before.

“Again using t-ara”

“Oh my god can't she leave T-ara alone already??
Looks like she still always has to bring them up to boost her 'career'"

“Don't worry, Queen's (T-ara fans) will call her out on her bullshit if she tries to victimize herself again
She really is a good actress, she fooled a whole nation into believing she was "bullied" and now she tries to get popular with that because back then she realized that she never stood out in T-ara at all lol”

The story told by AFSM was ready to go immediately when the show was aired and appears to be a premeditated attack on the twins, not a reaction to the broadcast. This is a definite red flag. Either AFSM decided, without having seen the interview, to prepare the story and claim that s/he couldn't watch Hwayoung play the victim any more (something she never did), or it was prepared by MBK, perhaps after a tip-off from someone at TVN, but it is very possible that MBK was involved from the very beginning. 

KKS knew people in the industry and he could easily arrange to have Hwayoung invited onto a show and asked the right questions so that the answers could be spun as victim-playing. That could be followed by having Kim Woori on a show and getting him to talk about Hwayoung and the staff and editing it to make Hwayoung look bad. That was the knockout blow because the Taxi interview really had no substance.

Record of lying and treating the members badly 

KKS lied about Hwayoung when he sacked her and is now being investigated for vote rigging in the Produce 101 survival show.

Edit: He was was convicted in January 2021.

MBKEntertainment founder Kim Kwang Soo summoned for alleged involvementin 'Produce' rigging | allkpop

On January 22, legal sources reported that the Seoul Central District Court had sentenced Kim Kwang Soo, the general producer of MBK Entertainment, and “Park” (Park Kyu Heon), the CEO of PocketDol Studio, which is a subsidiary of MBK, to fines of 10 million won each (about $9,100). , the general producer of MBK Entertainment, and “Park” (Park Kyu Heon), the CEO of PocketDol Studio, which is a subsidiary of MBK, to fines of 10 million won each (about $9,100).

The two have been indicted on charges of obstruction of business. Both have been charged with buying 10,000 IDs between March and April 2016 and making MBK Entertainment employees use these borrowed IDs to vote and raise the rankings of three trainees from the agency. This resulted in about 89,228 false votes being cast in the third and final rounds of voting in the first season of “Produce 101.”

The court stated, “The defendants used illegal methods to raise the rankings of their agency trainees on the audition program by acquiring false IDs en masse and forcing company employees and trainees to vote. This had an effect on the rankings. Even though the defendants had produced and planned audition-style programs themselves, they not only failed to cultivate a clear, transparent, and fair business culture, but even used false votes and other secretive methods to sow distrust.”

https://www.soompi.com/article/1450068wpp/mbk-entertainment-producer-and-pocketdol-studio-ceo-receive-fine-for-produce-101-vote-manipulation

When Hwayoung was fired KKS said that 19 staff members out 19 wanted her to go. Was that vote rigged too?

The way he overworked the members and made them fear for their places was probably one of the biggest causes of the tension that led to the scandal.

Lack of any sense of AFSM being there

It's all very impersonal, as if was written by someone who has been told about the events and not by a witness. It even includes this sentence:

"Seeing everything happen from afar, on one hand, I understand why the members said those things."

There is an apparent claim of being there in the next paragraph but it is undermined by a false claim about what the doctor said.

"So we went to the hospital in Japan. Sure enough, they said there was nothing wrong and she wouldn’t need a cast."

The staff interviewed for the Dispatch article, which is certainly not biased in favour of Hwayoung, reported that the hospital said the ankle didn't need a cast but did require further treatment. That is very different from saying there was nothing wrong. This article is one that fans often cite as proof of Hwayoung's guilt and is certainly not biased in her favour.

AFSM then makes another "error." 

"Hyomin tried first to talk to Hwayoung, but Hwayoung said, ‘There’s nothing that I feel bad for, so I have no reason so say sorry,’ which cut off any conversation. And that’s when it happened: the threatening messages from Hyoyoung to Areum." 

  
Again the staff interviewed by Dispatch tell a different story.

The following is the testimony of a staff member who has been close to T-ara and in his private life

'"Hyomin tried to start a conversation. She sincerely wanted to address the problem. Hwayoung saw that sincerity too. She said, ‘I got it,” she walked alone afterwards and practiced by herself. Her expression was different.”

According to this staff, the situation was thought to be resolved with that. Then Hwayoung’s unnie, Hyoyoung, sent out the text messages exactly 1 hour before Music Bank went live.

Conclusion

Is AFSM really KKS? I can't say for certain, but I think it's very likely. Until the question is asked and answered in Korea we won't really know.

The other question is this. If the story was revealed in such a dishonest way, with no concern for how Areum would be affected, how much of it should we believe? I have never thought that it was the whole truth or pure truth; there is some truth in it, but to me it always seemed insincere and cynical.